The world of retail used to explode the day after Thanksgiving. To shoppers of a certain age, the term “Black Friday” used to mean a lot of things, including early mornings, long lines, and near-riots in store aisles. But since the rise of ecommerce, Black Friday turned into Cyber Monday. Lately, there have been more and more days throughout the year that see online retailers holding large price markdowns, but Cyber Monday still reigns supreme. With all of the pomp and circumstance around online shopping and deal days, you need to be prepared. It’s easy to be distracted by all of the emails and ads you see about sales and end up buying things you don’t want, or even worse, grabbing items that aren’t even discounted. Check out these Cyber Monday strategies: 1. Give yourself a Cyber Monday budget 2. Identify your targets 3. Bookmark your online stores 4. Follow your stores on social 5. Sign up for newsletters 6. Look for gift codes first 7. Know your return policies 8. Automate price comparison 9. Avoid suspicious sites 10. Shop privately 11. Use a rewards card if you have one 12. Finally, keep an eye on your accounts Each year, Cyber Monday changes and evolves. As this is written, there’s no telling what tech trends will get the most deals and which retailers will offer the most markdowns. That’s why it’s so important to start with a strategy that can help you maximize your deal making ability and set yourself up to be most impressive gift giver this holiday season.
To find out more details on each of the above tips, visit https://www.rate.com/resources/cyber-monday-strategies
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More than three-and-a-half years after COVID struck, the U.S. still has around 2 million more retirees than predicted, in one of the most striking and enduring changes to the nation’s labor force. The so-called, 'Great Retirement,' induced by COVID-19 is evident in the divergence between the actual number of retirees and that predicted by a Federal Reserve economic model. While down from a 2.8 million gap late last year, it remains elevated today and has even risen from 1.7 million in June. Before the pandemic, the participation rate for workers age 65 and older reached 20.8% before dropping two-and-a-half percentage points by July 2021. The rate has since risen a percentage point to 19.3% but remains well below the pre-pandemic high. The lack of older workers is creating some shortages. In Michigan, a state law was tweaked to make it easier for teachers to “un-retire” without risking their pensions.
Before this summer’s rise in excess retirees, there was speculation that a whole “un-retirement” wave was under way, but that seems to have not been the reality. For many older Americans, leaving the labor market is a one-way street. While many may miss the routine and stimulation and want to resume work for financial reasons, rejoining the workforce can be difficult. Skills decline, work connections rapidly fade and job-seekers may confront an age gap, all making it harder for many older workers to find a job. In 2022, the mean duration to find a job for people age 65 and older was 31.6 weeks, 9 weeks longer that the overall average. Before the pandemic, from 2017 to 2019, roughly 3% of retired workers on average ended up having a job a year later. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/us-retiree-surplus-is-still-near-two-million-years-after-covid?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=email&leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg Government Shutdown
Budget deficit
Source: https://www.cato.org/blog/cbo-budget-economic-outlook-post-covid-fiscal-era https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/moodys-changes-outlook-united-states-ratings-negative-2023-11-10/#:~:text=%22It%20is%20hard%20to%20disagree,burden%20will%20continue%20to%20grow.%22
Here are three factors to consider when making charitable donations:
There are more than 1.5 million nonprofit organizations in the United States. With a little planning, helping some of these groups achieve their missions can also have the additional benefit of tax savings for you. Source: https://www.capitalgroup.com/ria/insights/articles/giving-and-receiving-3-tips.html The current economic climate is facing higher inflation than previously expected, as indicated by increases in both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). PPI indicates the cost of production from a producer standpoint while CPI reflects cost of living for consumers. On October 12th, CPI was reported to rise 0.4% on the month, above 0.3% forecast. The PPI increased 0.5% for September, against the estimated 0.3% rise. Several factors are contributing to this inflationary trend, including the persistent high cost of oil due to OPEC’s supply restriction and corporate consolidations in the oil sector, ongoing labor strikes, and a highly competitive job market. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, in his address on October 19th, offered limited insight into the Fed’s outlook, but highlighted prevailing uncertainties. Due to elevated inflation, Powell hinted at the possibility of maintaining the current interest rate of 5.25% - 5.50% at the November 1st meeting further extending the period of high interest rates. The Federal Reserve, adopting a cautious stance, is prepared to reassess the situation during their meeting on December 13th if necessary.
Adding to the complexity is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. A seminar hosted by Fidelity (script available in the source section) emphasized a probable escalation of tensions between Israel and Palestine due to the decisive determination of removing Hamas-controlled Gaza. The problem is rooted in the complex territorial landscape of Gaza. Twenty-five-mile land encompassing 2 million people, operates on two distinct levels. The first is the visible, densely populated urban area that exists on the surface. The second is the "subterranean" Gaza, an underground region primarily utilized for weapon manufacturing. Since the area is heavily urbanized, this possess a challenge to the Israeli army when it comes to deterring terroristic group while preserving lives of all civilians. An escalation is said to cause supply chain disturbance causing the oil prices to increase back to September levels. On October 19th, oil prices saw a moderate increase of 2.47%. With the situation evolving, a short-term gradual uptrend is anticipated within the industry. Despite losing their relevance, the monthlong auto strikes are continuing with union demand for substantial pay and benefits. Although production and revenues are impacted, a resolution is anticipated once demands are met, marking a pathway to recovery. Overall, the Federal Reserve is exercising caution. The risk of over-tightening is balanced with the need for inflation control. The Fed is likely awaiting October's CPI and PPI data to gain clearer insights into inflation trends. Despite energy market fluctuation, there is a promising sign in real estate. With the 10-year note yield above median cap rate, bonds offer more attractive returns. This gives an opportunity for investors to reallocate assets and “meet” the supply of bonds thus creating an equilibrium in which supply equals demand. This would bolster confidence in government fiscal policy and economic stability, potentially eliminating the need to raise interest rates. However, at Traditions Wealth Advisors we have diversified your portfolios well to buffer against inflation and protect against geo-political events like Israel and Ukraine. Source: https://www.crossmarkglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/A-Message-from-Bob-Ramifications-from-Middle-East-War.pdf https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/9910988.html Israel is in the midst of dealing with internal unrest while simultaneously engaging in key diplomatic discussions with Saudi Arabia and the U.S. These negotiations are especially significant as they could mark a turning point in the historic relations between Arab nations and Israel, with the potential recognition from Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel as a state. The U.S. is helping facilitate these discussions along with Saudi Arabia's proposal to boost oil production to “cement” this deal. However, a recent act of aggression from Hamas has introduced new challenges. Gaza, under the aegis of Hamas since 2007, has endured persistent economic adversities. Iran’s sponsorship of Hamas is viewed with suspicion, raising concerns about potential interferences in the ongoing Israel-centric diplomatic discussions. Although sanctions could be applied to Iran through similar pacts as JCPOA, Iran's strategic diversification of its economy since the 1980s has reduced the impact of such restrictive measures.
Simultaneously, adverse reactions from Israel could jeopardize the emerging diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and subsequently influence the proposed augmentation in oil output. The economic repercussions of the unfolding conflict are contingent upon its duration and scope. With the “battleground” located away from oil extraction sites, the initial 5% hike in oil prices on Monday, October 9th was a reflexive market reaction rather than a sustained trend (speculation). Subsequent days (October 10th and 11th) saw a retraction in oil prices nearing the last week’s levels. The economic outlook, particularly concerning oil prices, depends largely on the containment of the conflict within its current boundaries. An escalation spreading to other parts of the Middle East could influence a tangible shock in oil prices. However, historical context offers some reassurance; since 2007, the area has experienced four major wars and numerous minor conflicts, each lasting about a month on average, without causing prolonged disturbances in oil prices. On top of that, with winter season approaching, a seasonal dip in demand could serve as a stabilizing factor, potentially offsetting any short-term spikes in oil prices resulting from the conflict. How does this conflict compare to the 1970s? During the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Middle East was amidst geopolitical tensions. In 1973, the conflict escalated between the Arab (Egypt and Syria) and Israeli, known as the Yom Kippur War. With the U.S. intervention, $2.2 billion emergency financial aid package was sent to Israel, which prompted OPEC to impose an oil embargo against the U.S. This embargo brought more economic downturn in the U.S., exacerbating the already fragile economic environment partially triggered by Nixon’s detachment from the gold standard. Subsequently, the U.S. economy faced inflated oil prices, a supply shock, and severe energy shortages, exacerbating inflationary pressures and limiting economic growth—a phenomenon encapsulated in the term "stagflation." The latest geopolitical turmoil in Israel vastly differs from the past. The U.S. currently relies less on OPEC, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) data shows a decline to 15% bpd (barrels per day) of total oil imports from 47.8% bpd in 1973, with Canada now being the predominant supplier of 52.5% bpd. In short-term, the U.S. oil supply should remain stable unless the conflict expands. Long-term effects hinge on the Ukrainian crisis and potential Israeli-Saudi diplomatic relations. As time progresses, we will continue to monitor this situation and forewarn clients of emerging challenges. Source:https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php#:~:text=Since%201977%2C%20the%20percentage%20shares,of%20U.S.%20crude%20oil%20imports Traditions Wealth Advisors is starting a new series of weekly updates to our economy. We hired a new student intern to fulfill this need for our clients. Brien L. Smith, CEO of TWA, and Kristina Badrak, Economic Analyst Intern, will be informing you weekly of updates in the current market. Below is week 1, September 27, 2023:
In light of recent market fluctuations and continuous hikes in interest rates, there is a growing apprehension about a potential recession on the horizon. In this monthly edition of the TWA newsletter, we offer insights into the prevailing economic and financial market conditions and any implications it carries for investors.
Sources: https://www.chase.com/content/dam/chase-ux/documents/personal/investments/mid-year-outlook-2023.pdf Brien is pictured above with the 2023-24 officers of the TAMU Economics Society. Over 50 members attended the meeting, and Brien presented on Financial Planning/Wealth Management as a Career. Thanks and Gig'em to the TAMU Economics Society for inviting TWA to their meeting.
Laurie received her BBA in Accounting from Texas A&M University in 1989. She worked in the audit department for Arthur Andersen in the San Antonio office from 1989-1991 and earned her CPA license in 1991. She has spent the majority of her professional career in Russellville, Arkansas, where her husband was employed at a 2-unit nuclear plant. After taking a few years off to start a family, Laurie worked in the business office of a rural community mental health center with services and facilities in 6 Arkansas counties from 1996-2005. In this position, she was responsible for the accounting functions of the agency, 2 HUD apartment complexes and 2 HUD group home facilities, as well as applying for State grants. Laurie later worked for Kent Dollar and Associates, a local CPA firm from 2005-2007. After taking a few years off to focus on family needs, Laurie worked for Debbie Brown CPA PA in office from 2011 to 2017 and then worked remotely from 2018-2022 when her family moved to College Station. Her primary job duties were performing rural water company audits and the write up work, payroll functions, and tax returns for many small business S-Corporations. Laurie is married and has 3 young adult children. Laurie is a member of the Brazos County Aggie Moms Club and serves on the "Aggies in Need" committee. Laurie and her husband, Darrell, enjoy a variety of Aggie sporting events together and host family and close friends at their home and tailgate on Aggie football weekends. Laurie is also active at her church in many areas including the Women's ACTS retreat team, the bookstore, and welcoming people as a Front Door Disciple. She also enjoys helping at many Knights of Columbus events in the community. Laurie is excited to be a part of the team at Traditions Wealth Advisors and looks forward to assisting Brien with the many aspects of financial and tax planning for the clients. |
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