Traditions Wealth Advisors
Greysen Golgert/Brien L. Smith CFP©
Economic Analyst Intern/Chief Investment Officer
3/28/2025

President Trump has been insistent that reciprocal tariffs are on the way, but their reported scope and scale changes every week. Dramatic rhetoric and calls for extreme taxes on various imports have been swallowed hook, line, and sinker by investors. When the implications of a potential trade war with the EU became clear in early March, stock markets entered what Wall Street calls a “correction” (the S&P 500 had fallen over 10% by that point) by March 13th . That knee-jerk reaction to President Trump’s spat with the EU was likely overblown, but it makes sense that high-stakes geopolitical machinations are spooking investors. Stagflation—low growth with high inflation—is the top-of-mind concern for financial institutions at the moment. Stagflation might become a real threat if every tariff proposed by President Trump were to actually make it out of the Oval Office, but that has not been the case. The only tariffs Trump has effectuated are a 20% tariff on all Chinese goods, a 25% tariff on non-USMCA-compliant products from Canada and Mexico, and a 25% tax on all steel and aluminum imports. Those are not insignificant figures by any means, but they are certainly less severe than President Trump had initially promised and mostly represent a continuation of his approach to trade policy in his first term.

​April 2nd is purportedly the day when a new, comprehensive tariff plan will be revealed by the Trump Administration. Markets made up some of their losses from weeks prior when reports came out that this plan will cover a narrower scope than previously expected. They will focus primarily on the “dirty 15”—the 15% of nations with persistent trade imbalances with the U.S.—instead of on the entire breadth of U.S. trade relationships as the president had initially directed them to do. Despite the slight let off, industry leaders are still seeking clarity when it comes to sectoral tariffs such as those placed on steel and aluminum. These can have a more disruptive effect than country-specific tariffs because companies based in the U.S. that rely on cheaper foreign steel (or aluminum) for production will be forced to eat the additional 25% cost that importers now face. What April 2nd has in store for investors remains to be seen, but it is worth remembering that Trump can change executive orders in an instant. Members of that “dirty 15” may elect to remove their current tariffs on U.S. goods in order to appease President Trump and get themselves removed from the reciprocal tariffs list. The only
certainty regarding this tariff plan is that it will heavily whipsaw financial markets, either generating a rally or opening up the possibility for another “correction.”

These trade policy swings have created choppier waters going forward, but there is reason to trust in the resilience of this United States economy. Sentiment may be declining because of the geopolitical element, but hard economic data reveals a fundamentally strong economy. Unemployment is still extremely low at 4.1%, retail sales are up 4.2% as of the year ended January 2025, and inflation surprised to the downside in February
(2.8% year-over-year). These figures give the Federal Reserve plenty of room to maneuver with rate cuts if the contractionary effect of tariffs proves significant.

As always contact us at Traditions Wealth Advisors with any questions or concerns.

Sources:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-tariff-reciprocal-deadline-industrial-delay-97508838?mod
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-economy-is-still-resilient-but-tariffs-pose-risks/
https://www.stifel.com/Newsletters/AdGraphics/InSight/Sightlines/2025/SL031325.pdf

March Madness is not just about basketball, as you are finishing your taxes, why not re-evaluate your retirement plan. How much do you need to save for retirement? It's one of the most common questions people have. And no wonder. There are so many imponderables: When will you retire? How much will you spend in retirement? And for how long?

Our savings factors are based on the assumption that a person saves 15% of their income annually beginning at age 25 (which includes any employer match), invests more than 50% on average of their savings in stocks over their lifetime, retires at age 67, and plans to maintain their preretirement lifestyle in retirement. Based on those assumptions, we estimate that saving 10x (times) your preretirement income by age 67, together with other steps, should help ensure that you have enough income to maintain your current lifestyle in retirement. That 10x goal may seem ambitious. But you have many years to get there. To help you stay on track, we suggest these age-based milestones: Aim to save at least 1x your income by age 30, 3x by 40, 6x by 50, and 8x by 60. Your personal savings goal may be different based on various factors including 2 key ones described below. But these guidelines can provide a starting point to help your build your savings plan, and assess your progress.

1. When you plan to retire?
The age you plan to retire can have a big impact on the amount you need to save, and your milestones along the way. The longer you can postpone retirement, the lower your savings factor can be. That's because delaying gives your savings a longer time to grow, you'll have fewer years in retirement, and your Social Security benefit will be higher. Of course, you can't always choose when you retire—health and job availability may be out of your control. But one thing is clear: Working longer will make it easier to reach your savings goals.


2. How you want to live in retirement?
In other words, do you expect your expenses to go down when you retire? We call that a below average lifestyle. Or will you spend as much as you do now? That's average. If you expect your expenses will be more than they are now, that's above average. 

Our simple widget lets you see the impact of these 2 variables—when you plan to retire and what kind of lifestyle you want to live in retirement—on how much you need to have saved when you do retire, and on all the intermediate milestones. What if you're behind? If you're under age 40, the simple answer is to save more and invest for growth through a diversified investment mix. Of course, stocks come with more ups and downs than bonds or cash, so you need to be comfortable with those risks. If you're over 40, the answer may be a combination of increased savings, reduced spending, and working longer, if possible.

No matter what your age, focus on the goals ahead. Don't be discouraged if you aren't at your nearest milestone—there are ways to catch up to future milestones through planning and saving. The key is to take action, and the earlier the better!

Source: 
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/retirement/how-much-do-i-need-to-retire?ccsource=email_weekly_0220_1037578_132_0_CV1