|
Traditions Wealth Advisors Greysen Golgert/Brien L. Smith CFP® Economic Analyst Intern/Chief Investment Officer April 24, 2025 It’s no secret that economic outlooks have shifted in the previous month as policy change generates extreme uncertainty in the United States and abroad. Optimism and all-time stock market highs in February have now finally shifted to bearish sentiment and more reasonably-priced equities. Uncertainty has more to do with this rapid change than any sign of fundamental weakness in the economy. American exceptionalism may have taken a hit over the last month in financial markets, but economic indicators have something to say about that. Labor market data remains strong as initial jobless claims ticked down from 224,000 in February to 215,000 in March, below the 225,000 claims that economists expected. The current 4.2% unemployment rate is well below the long-term average unemployment rate in the United States (5.68%) and the range of rates in which an economy is considered to be at full or normal employment (4.5-5.5%). The most recent employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics did begin to witness the effects of federal job cuts, but strength in other sectors led to a robust 228,000 jobs added in March. On the flip-side, both core and headline inflation seem to be moving in a favorable direction. Headline inflation ticked down to 2.4% year over year, and core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, hit its lowest 12-month increase since March 2021, dropping to 2.8%. Jobs and inflation are only part of the picture, but they are indicative of an economy that continues to chug along despite the trade turmoil. President Trump has been open about his desire for the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rates. Economists, and especially those at the Federal Reserve, seem hesitant. The rate range has held steady at 4.25-4.5% through multiple FOMC meetings, underscoring the Fed’s commitment to its dual mandate of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment. Cutting the interest rate now would almost certainly guarantee higher inflation because of tariffs. If inflation gets out of control, then the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates back to an even more restrictive point than they are now. Investors know this and markets experienced a significant drop when Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It is best for this economy if rates are held pat until significant weakness materializes in the labor market. The price of gold futures briefly topped $3,500 per Troy ounce this week before pulling back slightly to $3,300 per Troy ounce as investors seek to hedge against equities risk or as a long-term safe haven. Gold is considered to be a good safety net during periods of extreme uncertainty. It has proven to be a solid investment since the 1990s, outperforming bonds consistently through the past three decades. The geopolitical implications of the trade policy blitz have been the primary driver of record-breaking demand for the commodity in recent weeks. Gold has also managed to challenge the performance of equities markets as well, outpacing the performance of the S&P 500 significantly when considering 3 and 10-year splits. It is now hovering around the highest price it has ever been, suggesting that investors should wait to buy it at a discount or consider it for portfolio diversification in the long-term or risk mitigation in the short-term. Sources:
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/notes-on-the-week-ahead/recession-risks-resilience-and-american-exceptionalism/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-maintains-record-rally-following-trumps-criticism-fed-chief-2025-04-22/ https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/dead-cat-bounce/
0 Comments
Because I'm in the financial industry, my friends often come to me with questions about money, especially when something changes in their life-like when a girlfriend got a new job and had questions about her 401(k) or a baseball mom friend got an inheritance. Their financial situation had changed, and they weren't sure what to do. My sister is a perfect example. She always let her husband handle the practical things, like decisions around money. When he died suddenly at the age of 49, she found herself facing a whole new financial reality. His life insurance left her with a million-dollar insurance payout, which put her in a new wealth category. But despite being financially secure, she was now in the driver's seat with no idea of what to do and no time to prepare. Fortunately, I could help. I put her through a financial planning process and helped her sell and buy a house, get invested, and understand the basics. While there was a learning curve, there were positive outcomes. As women actively engage in their financial picture, there are benefits that extend beyond money. Overwhelming majorities of women investors say that managing their investments gives them a feeling of empowerment (91%) and that they enjoy investing (83%), according to the 2025 Charles Schwab Women Investors Survey. . Seven ideas to help build wealth: 1. Gain confidence through education It's easy to feel overwhelmed by your finances. The good news is, now more than ever before, there are tons of resources offering clear, simple financial information. Listen to podcasts from trusted providers like Schwab. Don't be afraid of the terminology. It doesn't have to be complicated and, the more you learn, the easier you'll find it is. If you are in a relationship, both members of a couple should have complete knowledge of their individual and shared finances. Whether or not each of you is actively involved in financial decision-making, you should both know the big picture-things like net worth, cash flow, debt, insurance, investment accounts, retirement savings, and estate planning. Not working outside of the home? Don't check out of your finances. If you leave the workforce temporarily or permanently, it's important to stay involved and be an active participant in your family finances. Consider scheduling money dates with your partner at least a couple times a year so you understand income, expenses, and where the accounts are located. Is your partner using a financial advisor? Attend the meetings too, and ask questions if there are things you don't understand. 2. Invest in your career, and don't limit yourself Know your worth. Do some wage comparison research for your job, and don't be afraid to negotiate for fair compensation. Have a sense of the work you do and how your personal set of skills can apply to a variety of jobs. These are called "transferable skills," and knowing how to leverage them could open many new job possibilities. Also, building wealth isn't just about increasing your salary. It can also be about increasing your income streams beyond your day job. "Side hustles," like investing in real estate or starting side businesses, are becoming more popular with younger generations. Don't underestimate the value of what you can do or limit your wealth-building opportunities by thinking you can only go in one direction. 3. Set a strong financial foundation Financial confidence starts with taking control of your money. So set a budget-and stick to it! Understand what's coming in and what's going out each month. Look at where you might be overspending, and make changes where you can. Create an emergency fund of at least three to six months of essential expenses so you're prepared for something unexpected like a job loss or illness. Make sure you have adequate insurance. Now you have a foundation to build on. 4. Build your credit history Stay on top of debt. Sure, use credit cards, but don't charge more than you can pay off each month. Have a plan to pay down any high-interest debt you're carrying. Realize that your credit history can affect the interest rate you get on loans such as a mortgage. It can even be a factor in renting an apartment or getting a job. Your credit history follows you wherever you go. Make it a good one. 5. Start saving (or increase savings) ASAP Setting goals and saving is part of establishing a strong financial foundation. Write down your goals: short, medium, and long term and for each, give yourself a timeline and amount you need to save. The more concrete your goals are, the more likely you are to achieve them. And make sure saving for retirement is on the top of your list. 85% percent of women say they wish they had started investing sooner, and 65% say they delayed saving and building wealth because they didn't have enough extra earnings to set aside, the Schwab survey found. There's tremendous wealth-building power in the tax-deferred earnings offered by retirement accounts. Consider contributing enough to a 401(k) or other company plan to at least get the company match, more if possible. No company plan? Consider an IRA. One way to fund that could be to set up automatic payments from your checking account. If you start in your 20s, aim to save 10-15% of your salary. And if you keep saving at that level, you may not have to increase that percentage for the rest of your working years. It will automatically go up as your salary increases. Start later and you'll likely want to contribute more. For those 50 or older, catch-up contributions are a great way to max out your savings. 6. Invest early and don't be emotional You don't need to have a lot of money to start investing, so don't be afraid to start small. For example, you could consider starting by investing $100 or $500 and go from there. Don't let your emotions get the best of you. When you're young, you have time to help ride out market ups and downs. The three biggest investing lessons women investors say they have learned, according to the 2025 Schwab Women Investors Survey, are: Staying invested through market volatility (58%), Acknowledging their risk tolerance (57%), and Diversifying their investments (54%) 7. Work with a professional An advisor could help you with an overall financial plan and help make sure your savings and investments are on track to meet your goals. Sometimes all it takes is a consultation or two, or you may want ongoing advice and check-ins to make sure you're on track. Either way, talking to a professional can give you greater confidence that the decisions you're making financially are helping you build the life you want. Create your own support system These are the steps I share with my friends to help them actively engage with their finances. Take them one at a time, and as you understand more, your confidence in your ability to make good financial decisions will grow. Need a little extra moral support? Reach out to your friends. About one in five women investors (19%) frequently discuss financial information with others and almost half (46%) say they discuss finances on an occasional basis, the 2025 Schwab Women Investors Survey found. Share stories, and learn from each other's experiences. To me, despite the financial challenges women can face, we have the ability to take financial control and build wealth for ourselves. We just have to decide to do it! Source: Bidner, Jeannie. 16 April 2025. Charles Schwab.
Employees are reaching retirement age with little preparation of what's to come. According to fintech provider IRALOGIX Retirement Readiness Index, the national retirement readiness score is 45.8 out of 100. The index measured retirement preparedness across five key areas, including savings and investments, healthcare readiness, lifestyle and spending, emotional well-being and economic and policy confidence. Scores under 50 point to a "moderate risk" zone, according to their data, and should be a "wake up call" for those nearing retirement and the employers and policy makers that have influence on retirement benefits and programs, said Peter de Silva, CEO of IRALOGIX. "It's not just a number - it's a mirror held up to the financial anxieties, gaps in planning and uncertainty that millions of Americans face as they approach one of life's most important milestones: retirement," de Silva said in a press release. "Our data shows that too few are prepared for both the financial and personal impact of aging-related issues, and are struggling with saving enough, planning for healthcare, and trusting that essential benefits like Social Security will be there when they need them." To create a full retirement score, IRALOGIX assigned each key area a maximum number of points that it could potentially contribute to the total retirement readiness score. Savings and investments, for example, have the biggest influence on a person's retirement readiness, and IRALOGIX assigned this area a maximum of 35 points toward the total score. However, Americans scored just 15.1 points in this area, meaning the majority of savers are not saving enough for the long-term, and lack confidence to boost their savings. Another category was healthcare readiness, which was given a maximum of 15 points. Yet Americans across the board scored just 6.3 points in this area. Inadequate healthcare preparation is a widespread problem for employees approaching retirement, and one that will only become more dire, with cuts to Medicare expected in the coming years and healthcare costs on the ride. According to IRALOGIX data from 2024, 37% of retirees said healthcare costs were their biggest challenge. "Retirement readiness is not just a personal issue, it's a societal one," de Silva said. "When individuals are unprepared for retirement, the ripple effects are felt across families, workplaces, communities, and the broader economy." Yet there were some bright spots in their survey: Americans scored higher - though still below average in areas of economic and policy changes, as well as emotional well-being. IRALOGIX found that half of the respondents expect Social Security to remain intact, and there is wide-spread concern around the impact of inflation on retirement savings. "The good news is that retirement readiness isn't out of reach, but it does require action," Pete Littlejohn, president of IRALOGIX, said in the release. "Americans can start by getting informed, setting clear goals, and using the tools available to them, from workplace retirement plans to personal savings and trusted financial advice." As employees look for support and solutions from employers, it will require a multi-pronged approach to ensuring employees are financially prepared today and into the future. Offering retirement plans with autoenrollment options, as well as access to financial wellness programs with personal advisory services, are critical steps for employees to get on the right track as soon as possible. "Preparation is power," Littlejohn said. "Every step taken today helps build the confidence and security needed for tomorrow." Source: Place, Alyssa. 15 April 2025. Financial Planning Magazine.
|
Archives
November 2025
Categories
All
|