Greysen Golgert/Brien L. Smith CFP®
Economic Analyst Intern/Chief Investment Officer

A surprising Federal Open Market Committee decision to cut rates by fifty basis points in late September has U.S. financial markets booming a month later. Unfazed by a turbulent start to October that included port strikes, hurricanes, and an Iran-Israel conflict escalation, investors are optimistic about the direction of this surging U.S. economy. Initial worries that the Fed acted too soon have been drowned out by a great jobs report and stable inflation. According to a quarterly Wall Street Journal survey of sixty-six economists, the probability of a recession occurring in the next 12 months is down to about 25%. For context, this same WSJ survey of economists in October 2023 predicted about a 50% chance that a recession would occur this past year. Whether we simply dodged a 50/50 bullet in the last 12 months or not, economists are beginning to lean toward the likelihood that Fed strategy will cause a soft landing instead of a hard one.

A recent Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report shows that 254,000 jobs were added in September, while the July and August jobs reports were revised upward by 55,000 and 17,000, respectively. Most of these employment gains have been made in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction. The overall unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, still well below the U.S. long term average unemployment rate of 5.69%.

The BLS also releases a monthly Consumer Price Index report, the most widely used measure for inflation. The report for September showed that the all-items price index increased by 0.2%, which was the same as in August and July. For the 12 months ending in September, prices have risen by 2.4% in the all-items index. This is good news for a Fed that is hoping to see inflation slowly wind its way down to an annual target rate of 2%. Energy and medical care commodities were the only sectors that experienced deflation, but sectors that have experienced notoriously high inflation this year cooled off a little last month. The shelter price index only rose 0.2%, compared to a 0.5% increase in August. In the 12 months ended September 2024, Shelter (4.9% increase) and transportation services (8.5% increase) have been the largest drivers of upside inflation this year.

According to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, estimates for Q3 2024 GDP growth are reading in at approximately 3.4%. The advance estimate and most reliable measurement of Q3 GDP growth will be released on October 30th by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, but even the lowest forecasts from private economists suggest that the recent trend of stable GDP growth (since Q3 2022) will continue through the end of the year. Growth appears to be defying economists’ expectations once more, but this could result in more upside risk for an inflation figure that is currently under control.

​There are several areas to consider when making investment decisions in this new interest rate environment. SMID-cap companies (market capitalization of $20 billion or lower) should have more breathing room to spend and grow because the cost of borrowing will fall as rates do. This has certainly been reflected in the breakout performance of the Russell 2000 small cap index over the past month. However, investors should be selective when analyzing small or mid-cap companies and their valuations. Rate cuts have also created a favorable environment for the traditional 60-40 (stocks and bonds) portfolio allocation. Stocks and bonds are both attractive avenues for investment right now because of soft-landing expectations. If the soft landing scenario occurs and the economy does cool down without a recession, both asset classes will benefit.

Sources:
https://www.bls.gov
https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/where-consider-investing-interest-rates-fall.html?
 https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
https://www.wsj.com/economy/economists-predictions-survey-charts-68ba82d6?mod=central-banking_more_article_pos11

A will is an important way to distribute your assets, financial and otherwise. One major limitation of a will is that you have to die before it can become effective; in other words, if you're incapacitated, a will has no legal effect, so any health care proxies or durable powers of attorney you might have will guide any decisions made on your behalf. This could create problems if you need to complete financial transactions with outside parties who have trouble accepting or even refuse to accept a power of attorney.

A will also has to be probated in each state where you have assets — a process that can be lengthy and potentially costly. Further, a will is a public document that can be scrutinized or contested, giving the public access to information you might want to keep private.

A trust is a fiduciary arrangement specifying how your assets will be distributed, usually without involvement of a probate court. Additionally, trusts can be structured to take effect before or after death, or in the case of incapacitation. They can be very specific about how, when and to whom your assets will be distributed. Depending on the type of trust, assets held in a trust will be managed by you while you are alive and/or by a disinterested trustee. After your death, your successor trustee will be appointed by the trust in a manner more private than the typical probate proceeding.

The following are among trusts' features:

• You can use a trust to transfer property, helping to minimize estate taxes and/or preserve assets for minors until they're adults.
• You can create a special-use trust to meet estate planning goals, such as charitable giving, that also has tax-reduction benefits.
• You may create a trust to ensure your resources are preserved, managed and spent in line with your wishes while you are incapacitated, perhaps by a long illness.
• You can use a trust to leave very specific legacies, identifying who may benefit from its resources while defining how and when.
• You can choose how to deploy a trust. You can appoint a trustee to assist beneficiaries who may struggle to manage their bequests.
• You can structure a trust to protect beneficiaries from creditors, to manage state income taxes and/or to preserve the generation-skipping tax exemption.

There are many kinds of trusts, including the following:

• Living or inter-vivos trusts allow you to plan during your lifetime and bypass the probate process, controlling decisions related to the distribution of your assets.
• Revocable trusts are often used by estate planners; they are a fundamental building block for most estate plans. With a revocable trust, you retain control over your assets, including the option to buy, sell and trade assets; you can move assets in and out of the trust at your discretion; and you can establish controls and additional designated trustees to help protect assets if you die or become incapacitated.
• Irrevocable trusts cannot be changed after the agreement has been signed. They are managed by a disinterested trustee — someone other than you. They are a way to move assets out of your estate, potentially reducing the estate's value and its associated estate tax liability.

It is also possible to draft a will with trust provisions, known as a testamentary trust. This works in much the same way as other trusts but may still have to go through probate — and that could mean the probate court chooses to distribute your assets differently than you intended.

Paying an attorney to set up a trust represents additional front-end costs but may save your heirs significant money on the back end by avoiding probate. Some attorneys offer a basic trust package for a flat fee. Let your family and friends know the trust exists and share the thinking behind its creation to cultivate stewardship around the bequest. You've worked years to build a legacy, so make sure you optimize the legacy you leave to the people and causes you care about.

​Questions? Please reach out to Laurie at [email protected]

Source: Seidel Schroeder https://newsletter.homeactions.net/archive/full_article/14869/10338713/5162414/200504