Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional, Iran, GDP, and Private Credit

Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional

• The Supreme Court (6–3) struck down broad tariffs enacted under IEEPA.

• This eliminates many of the sweeping tariffs tied to trade deficits and fentanyl concerns.

• Hundreds of billions in collected tariffs may need refunds.

• The White House could try alternative legal pathways, but likely with more limits.

GDP Slowed in Q4 2025

• GDP grew at 1.4%, below expectations (2.8%) and down from 4.4% in Q3.

• The slowdown was largely due to: Government spending cuts (shutdown impact and trade effects)

• Consumer spending and business investment remained relatively healthy.

Iran Tensions & Oil Prices

• U.S.–Iran tensions have escalated.

• Oil has risen about $10 per barrel (Brent ~ $70).

• Major risk: disruption to the Strait of Hormuz (key oil transit route).

Private Credit Concerns

• Blue Owl Capital halted redemptions in one fund and liquidated assets.

• Redemption pressures and slower inflows are raising concerns.

• Private credit has grown significantly since 2008 as lending shifted away from banks.

• Public credit markets (including high yield) remain healthy with low spreads.