Traditions Wealth Insights

Why the Power Vacuum Hasn't Hit Home There’s an unusual situation unfolding in the Middle East right now. Even if the United States gains the upper hand, there may not be a clear path to resolution because there isn’t a stable counterpart to negotiate with. President Donald Trump had reportedly hoped to hold talks this week, but those plans fell through as Iran remains internally divided. That fragmentation, worsened by recent leadership disruptions, helps explain why the cur

Despite the onset of war earlier this year, U.S. equity markets have shown remarkable resilience. The S&P 500 is down roughly five percent from its record high on January 27 and has held the 200-day moving average. Analysts are increasingly debating whether the market is discounting a short conflict or a longer drawn-out scenario. Early projections suggested a possible ten to fifteen percent correction, but recent market behavior indicates a more measured response from invest

Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional The Supreme Court (6–3) struck down broad tariffs enacted under IEEPA. This eliminates many of the sweeping tariffs tied to trade deficits and fentanyl concerns. Hundreds of billions in collected tariffs may need refunds. The White House could try alternative legal pathways, but likely with more limits. GDP Slowed in Q4 2025 GDP grew at 1.4%, below expectations (2.8%) and down from 4.4% in Q3. The slowdown was largely due to: Government spending

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that tracks changes in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which focuses on prices consumers pay, the PPI measures inflation earlier in the production process, providing insight into cost pressures facing businesses. The PPI data are widely used by analysts and policymakers as part of broader inf

Part 1: Balancing Risk in Retirement Research from Capital Group shows a key insight: once clients enter the distribution phase of life, the emotional need for security often outweighs the pursuit of maximum returns. For many retirees, the fear of seeing a portfolio drop during a market correction can be more stressful than the risk of outliving savings. This heightened risk aversion shapes how retirement strategies should be structured. The Case for a More Conservative Appr

This afternoon, the Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the federal-funds target range down to 3.50%–3.75%. While markets widely anticipated the move, the tone of today’s announcement was anything but routine. For only the second time in more than a decade, the decision came with a rare three-member dissent. This unusually large split inside the central bank is a clear sign of how complex the economic landscape has become. Accordi

As we move into November, the economic backdrop in the U.S. is showing resilience, but with clear headwinds. Inflation appears to have stabilized and growth remains positive, though decelerating. At the same time, consumer sentiment has dropped significantly, and business-survey data suggest caution. The prolonged federal government shutdown has added a layer of uncertainty: key data collections at agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Econom

Year-End Tax Planning: 5 Key Moves to Consider Before December 31 ​ As the year draws to a close, now is an ideal time to review your financial picture and take advantage of tax-saving opportunities. Several important deadlines fall on December 31, and proactive planning can help reduce your tax bill and strengthen your long‑term financial position. Below are five key strategies to consider as you prepare for year-end. 1. Maximize Contributions and Meet Year-End Deadlines Ma

Economic costs of shutdowns According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, government shutdowns typically cost more money than they save, contrary to some public perceptions.[9] Evidence shows that implementing contingency plans, lost user fees, contractor premiums for uncertainty, and guaranteed back pay to furloughed employees negate potential savings. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the 2018-2019 shutdown reduced GDP by $11 billion total, inclu

Over the past several months, economic headlines have begun to raise the possibility of stagflation in the U.S. economy. This term describes the rare and troubling combination of sluggish economic growth, persistent inflation, and elevated unemployment. Each condition alone can be challenging, but when they occur together, the policy tools normally used to fix one problem can worsen the others. What Is Stagflation? Stagflation is an unusual economic environment where the econ

Investing is not about “getting rich” or “playing the market.” It’s an essential part of achieving financial wellness. That means being able to meet your needs and the needs of those who depend on you as well as being able to set and achieve goals that go beyond merely being able to pay your bills and manage debts like mortgages, credit cards, and student loans. These 6 steps can help you increase your investing success and achieve financial wellness, even when financial mark

This week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, offering an updated snapshot of inflation across the country. The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a set basket of goods and services—everything from groceries and gas to rent and healthcare. It’s the most widely watched measure of inflation and a key factor in shaping interest rate policy, consumer sentiment, and investmen

My wife, Kathy, and I recently returned from a 46th wedding anniversary trip to Europe. We went with three of Kathy’s siblings and their spouses. While we all had a lot of fun, I also asked many questions about the economy of each country we visited. We flew into the airport in Frankfurt, Germany on our way to Prague, the Czech Republic. The Frankfurt airport was busy but also old and in need of updating and remodeling. The Airbus 300 jet we boarded for a hop over to Prague w

Question: “What is inflation?” Inflation, simply put, is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises over time. It is inversely related to purchasing power, meaning that when inflation rises, each dollar buys less than before. For example, one dollar in the 1950s could buy more products than it would now, showing that the currency had more purchasing power back then. Moderate inflation indicates a healthy economy, reflecting growing demand, risi

A sharp escalation in military activity between Iran, Israel, and now the United States has intensified tensions across the Middle East. Over the past 24 hours, Iran launched missile attacks toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq, prompting several Gulf states to close their airspace. While the full scope of damage remains unclear and broader conflict is still not inevitable, the situation has clearly entered a more volatile and unpredictable phase. As always, our role is not to

Howdy! My name is Jade Chapman, and I’m honored to serve as the Economic Analyst Intern at TWA for the 2025–2026 academic year, continuing the great work of Greysen Golgert. I’m a senior at Texas A&M, beginning an accelerated master’s program this fall. I join TWA at a dynamic time for the U.S. economy, and over the next year, I’ll provide analysis and commentary on key macroeconomic trends. As I begin this exciting chapter, I find myself analyzing a particularly consequentia

U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade Marks a Historic Shift 3 major credit agencies: S&P, Fitch, Moody’s Credit rating scale: AAA (highest) to D (default) AAA rating benefits Low borrowing costs Investor confidence Indicator of economic stability Recent history S&P downgrade: 2011 (AAA to AA+) Fitch downgrade: 2023 (AAA to AA+) Moody’s downgrade: May 2025 (AAA to Aa1) Significance: First time U.S. has no AAA rating from any agency Reasons for the Moody’s downgrade: Debt levels: $36 t

Will you pay income tax on Social Security in retirement? For now, the answer in many cases is yes. This could change in the coming years as lawmakers debate changes to Social Security, including a proposal to eliminate the federal income tax on Social Security completely. While retirees might welcome this change, the idea faces political headwinds. For now, about 2 out of every 5 Social Security recipients will pay federal income taxes on their benefits, usually because they

It’s no secret that economic outlooks have shifted in the previous month as policy change generates extreme uncertainty in the United States and abroad. Optimism and all-time stock market highs in February have now finally shifted to bearish sentiment and more reasonably-priced equities. Uncertainty has more to do with this rapid change than any sign of fundamental weakness in the economy. American exceptionalism may have taken a hit over the last month in financial markets,

Because I'm in the financial industry, my friends often come to me with questions about money, especially when something changes in their life-like when a girlfriend got a new job and had questions about her 401(k) or a baseball mom friend got an inheritance. Their financial situation had changed, and they weren't sure what to do. My sister is a perfect example. She always let her husband handle the practical things, like decisions around money. When he died suddenly at the a