The world of retail used to explode the day after Thanksgiving. To shoppers of a certain age, the term “Black Friday” used to mean a lot of things, including early mornings, long lines, and near-riots in store aisles. But since the rise of ecommerce, Black Friday turned into Cyber Monday. Lately, there have been more and more days throughout the year that see online retailers holding large price markdowns, but Cyber Monday still reigns supreme. 

With all of the pomp and circumstance around online shopping and deal days, you need to be prepared. It’s easy to be distracted by all of the emails and ads you see about sales and end up buying things you don’t want, or even worse, grabbing items that aren’t even discounted. Check out these Cyber Monday strategies:

Each year, Cyber Monday changes and evolves. As this is written, there’s no telling what tech trends will get the most deals and which retailers will offer the most markdowns. That’s why it’s so important to start with a strategy that can help you maximize your deal making ability and set yourself up to be most impressive gift giver this holiday season.

To find out more details on each of the above tips, visit ​https://www.rate.com/resources/cyber-monday-strategies

More than three-and-a-half years after COVID struck, the U.S. still has around 2 million more retirees than predicted, in one of the most striking and enduring changes to the nation’s labor force.

The so-called, 'Great Retirement,' induced by COVID-19 is evident in the divergence between the actual number of retirees and that predicted by a Federal Reserve economic model. While down from a 2.8 million gap late last year, it remains elevated today and has even risen from 1.7 million in June.

Before the pandemic, the participation rate for workers age 65 and older reached 20.8% before dropping two-and-a-half percentage points by July 2021. The rate has since risen a percentage point to 19.3% but remains well below the pre-pandemic high.

The lack of older workers is creating some shortages. In Michigan, a state law was tweaked to make it easier for teachers to “un-retire” without risking their pensions.

Before this summer’s rise in excess retirees, there was speculation that a whole “un-retirement” wave was under way, but that seems to have not been the reality.

For many older Americans, leaving the labor market is a one-way street. While many may miss the routine and stimulation and want to resume work for financial reasons, rejoining the workforce can be difficult.

Skills decline, work connections rapidly fade and job-seekers may confront an age gap, all making it harder for many older workers to find a job. In 2022, the mean duration to find a job for people age 65 and older was 31.6 weeks, 9 weeks longer that the overall average.
Before the pandemic, from 2017 to 2019, roughly 3% of retired workers on average ended up having a job a year later.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/us-retiree-surplus-is-still-near-two-million-years-after-covid?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=email&leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg

Government Shutdown

• On November 14th, the House, defying expectations, approved a crucial stopgap bill to prevent the forthcoming government shutdown, achieving the necessary two-thirds majority. The bill proposed by the House Speaker Mike Johnson, introduces a unique dual-deadline strategy, allocating temporary funding until January 19th for essential areas like military construction, veterans' affairs, and transportation, with an extension for other government functions until February 2nd. This “strategic” move, omits additional support for Israel and Ukraine, is designed to avoid the traditional rush of extensive spending legislation typically observed before the holiday season. Despite facing opposition from conservatives for not passing significant spending cuts, the bill, now with a Democrat-majority Senate, is expected to pass effortlessly, signaling a pivotal moment in managing the nation’s budget.

 
Budget deficit

• The current budget deficit is 5% of the GDP, implying government spending currently exceeds revenue coming in. In addition, 65% of the federal budget is indexed to inflation, which indicates that fluctuating inflation rates can make it difficult to forecast future budget requirements. The percentages are influenced by a mix of economic, demographic, political, and social factors. It is a significant indicator of how the government balances the need to maintain the real value of its spending, especially on social welfare, against other fiscal and economic considerations. With social welfare rising and with a trajectory for social security to be depleted by 2033, unless benefits and taxes are restructured, an increasing portion of the budget dedicated to mandatory spending, there might be less flexibility for other areas of spending. Hence, high, and rising debt will increase interest rates, reduce incomes, crowd out private investment, and diminish growth. It also increases the risk of a sudden fiscal crisis where bond holders lose confidence in the government’s ability or willingness to service debt, without inflating away the debt’s value by reducing the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. Concerns about debt sustainability can lead to increased volatility in bond markets which investors will opt out of causing the gap of deficit to widen. In addition, this can also affect the value of the dollar. A weaker dollar (depreciation) can make imports more expensive, contributing to inflation, and can create volatility in currency markets.
• Recently, Moody's became the final one among the big three credit rating agencies, including S&P and Fitch, to downgrade U.S. debt from stable to negative. This action reflects concerns about substantial fiscal deficits and worsening debt affordability. Earlier, Fitch had revised its rating from AAA to AA+ in August, aligning with S&P's AA+ rating that has been in place since 2011. Christopher Hodge, Natixis's chief U.S. economist, emphasized the ongoing challenge, noting, "Deficits will remain large ... and as interest costs take up a larger share of the budget, the debt burden will continue to grow."
• On a positive note, U.S. inflation decreased from 3.7% in September to 3.2% in October. Similarly, Europe also experienced a greater-than-anticipated slowdown in inflation. The recent inflation statistics, combined with the current state of the labor market, are the key factors that will influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making in its upcoming meeting scheduled for December 12 and 13th.

 
Source: https://www.cato.org/blog/cbo-budget-economic-outlook-post-covid-fiscal-era
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/moodys-changes-outlook-united-states-ratings-negative-2023-11-10/#:~:text=%22It%20is%20hard%20to%20disagree,burden%20will%20continue%20to%20grow.%22