The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that tracks changes in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which focuses on prices consumers pay, the PPI measures inflation earlier in the production process, providing insight into cost pressures facing businesses. The PPI data are widely used by analysts and policymakers as part of broader inflation assessments. 

In the most recent release from the BLS, the PPI for final demand increased by 0.2 percent in November 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This modest monthly rise reflected a 0.9 percent gain in goods prices, while the services component remained unchanged for the month. On an annual basis, total producer prices were up 3.0 percent compared to November 2024. Annual changes in core goods and services help economists assess underlying inflation trends separate from short-lived price shocks. 

The PPI’s current readings suggest that wholesale price inflation remains above levels seen earlier in the year, but has not spiked dramatically. These patterns can be influenced by factors such as energy costs, supply chain conditions, and shifts in demand. Analysts often compare PPI trends with other indicators, including consumer price data, to form a comprehensive view of inflation dynamics within the economy. Because producer prices can eventually influence consumer prices, sustained changes in the PPI may signal broader inflationary movements over time. 
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Overall, the PPI provides a useful early indicator of price trends that businesses face. Slight increases, like those seen in recent months, suggest moderation in wholesale price pressures. However, economists continue to monitor these figures alongside other inflation measures to better understand how cost changes at the producer level may affect later stages of the economy.

Part 1: Balancing Risk in Retirement
Research from Capital Group shows a key insight: once clients enter the distribution phase of life, the emotional need for security often outweighs the pursuit of maximum returns.  For many retirees, the fear of seeing a portfolio drop during a market correction can be more stressful than the risk of outliving savings. This heightened risk aversion shapes how retirement strategies should be structured.
The Case for a More Conservative Approach
Recent studies show retirees are willing to trade growth potential for stability:

• Risk tolerance shifts dramatically: Only about 20% of retirees are comfortable accepting a 15% or greater drop in their principal for the potential of higher long-term gains.
• A “stability premium” emerges: Many retirees willingly accept lower growth or slightly reduced withdrawal potential in exchange for financial peace of mind.

Translating Mindset Into Portfolios
Practical retirement strategies reflect this mindset:

• Conservative allocations: Emphasizing defensive, lower-risk assets to minimize exposure to sudden market swings.
• Income-focused planning: Retirement portfolios often shift toward dependable income sources and a more stable risk profile.
• Psychological peace: Maintaining principal balance reduces stress and prevents irreversible decisions caused by market volatility.

Key Takeaway: Prioritizing stability in retirement planning helps ensure your portfolio supports both lifestyle and peace of mind.

Traditions Wealth Advisors
Jade Chapman/Brien L. Smith CFP®
Economic Analyst Intern/Chief Investment Officer
12/17/2025

This afternoon, the Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the federal-funds target range down to 3.50%–3.75%. While markets widely anticipated the move, the tone of today’s announcement was anything but routine. For only the second time in more than a decade, the decision came with a rare three-member dissent. This unusually large split inside the central bank is a clear sign of how complex the economic landscape has become. According to a Wall Street Journal, two policymakers argued against lowering rates at all, while another pushed for a deeper, 50-basis-point cut. The disagreement underscores just how differently Fed officials are interpreting inflation pressures, labor-market softness, and the appropriate pace of easing.

The majority’s decision to cut again reflects a growing concern that employment conditions are weakening faster than previously expected. Small-business payroll data, hiring surveys, and the latest JOLTS report all point to declining labor demand across a broad range of industries. This aligns with recent research suggesting that pockets of the labor market, particularly in small firms, are already contracting. At the same time, inflation has not yet fully receded. The Fed acknowledged that while price growth has moderated, it remains above target and is accompanied by an unusual divergence between elevated small-business price increases and a sharp drop in expansion sentiment. That tension partly explains why policymakers are so divided: some fear moving too slowly risks a labor-market downturn, while others remain focused on keeping inflation anchored.

Despite the internal split, markets reacted with measured relief, largely because Chair Powell left the door open to additional cuts should economic data warrant them. Investors viewed this as a sign that the Fed is not entering a prolonged pause, even though officials signaled they may hold steady in early 2026. Equity markets firmed after the announcement, and Treasury yields dipped modestly as traders interpreted today’s action as a “dovish cut,” meaning that it is aimed at supporting the economy rather than signaling renewed inflation risk. Still, the three dissents add a layer of uncertainty to the Fed’s path ahead. In previous cycles, sharp internal divisions have often preceded periods of choppier market behavior as investors adjust to a wider range of potential policy outcomes.

For the broader economy, today’s cut should provide some incremental relief to households and businesses. Lower short-term rates ease financing burdens, particularly for sectors sensitive to borrowing costs such as housing, autos, small-business capital spending, and credit-card balances. However, savers may see yields drift lower, and the Fed’s caution suggests that policymakers believe economic momentum is weaker than headline GDP figures imply. The combination of softening employment data and a divided Fed reinforces the idea that the U.S. economy is entering a transition phase: where growth remains positive but more vulnerable, and where policy decisions will need to be more finely calibrated than in the earlier stages of the rate-cutting cycle.

Looking ahead, the key question is whether today’s decision marks the end of the rapid sequence of cuts or simply a pause before further easing. The Fed did not commit firmly to either view, and the presence of three dissents makes clear that the debate will intensify as new data arrives. For investors, this means monitoring incoming labor and inflation indicators closely, as they will determine whether the Fed continues to nudge rates lower or chooses to hold steady. While today’s cut offers short-term support for markets and credit conditions, the underlying message is one of caution. A divided Fed is a reminder that the economic outlook is less certain than headlines may suggest, and prudent portfolio positioning remains essential as we move into 2026.

As we move into November, the economic backdrop in the U.S. is showing resilience, but with clear headwinds. Inflation appears to have stabilized and growth remains positive, though decelerating. At the same time, consumer sentiment has dropped significantly, and business-survey data suggest caution. The prolonged federal government shutdown has added a layer of uncertainty: key data collections at agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) were suspended or delayed during the shutdown, leaving gaps in employment, inflation, and spending statistics.
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In the financial markets, equities have held up reasonably well despite the data ambiguity, supported by strong earnings and favorable seasonality. That said, market breadth remains narrow with large tech and growth names leading while many other sectors lag. Meanwhile, fixed-income markets reflect the uncertainty around policy: with key data missing, the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is less clear, and yields have been volatile. The shutdown’s data blackout amplified the challenge for investors and policymakers alike.

Globally, growth remains uneven. While some emerging markets show pockets of strength, manufacturing and trade data are weak in many regions. Moreover, with the U.S. data flow disrupted by the shutdown, foreign investors and central banks face greater difficulty assessing the U.S. economy’s trajectory. This adds to the cautious tone across international markets as well.

Looking ahead, several key themes are critical. First, labor market dynamics: without a clear October employment report (which may not be released due to the shutdown) the signal from October is murky, potentially obscuring signs of softening. Second, inflation underpinnings (especially services and shelter costs) need monitoring if the Fed is to feel comfortable with cuts. Lastly, policy surprises (fiscal, regulatory, or trade-related) could spark volatility, especially in a backdrop where the data flow has been compromised.
In summary, November presents a cautiously constructive picture: there are opportunities given the resilience in earnings and favorable seasonality, but the missing data from the shutdown and narrow market leadership warrant extra vigilance. 

Year-End Tax Planning: 5 Key Moves to Consider Before December 31
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As the year draws to a close, now is an ideal time to review your financial picture and take advantage of tax-saving opportunities. Several important deadlines fall on December 31, and proactive planning can help reduce your tax bill and strengthen your long‑term financial position. Below are five key strategies to consider as you prepare for year-end.
 
1. Maximize Contributions and Meet Year-End Deadlines
Many tax-advantaged accounts require contributions or distributions before December 31. While IRA contributions can be made up to the tax-filing deadline, most workplace retirement plans such as 401(k)s and 403(b)s must be funded by year-end.
If you are age 73 or older, ensure you have taken your Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) to avoid penalties.
For families saving for education, 529 plan contributions may qualify for state tax benefits when completed by December 31.
 
2. Decide Whether to Itemize Deductions
Taxpayers can choose to take the standard deduction or itemize if eligible expenses exceed the standard amount. For 2025, the standard deduction is $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married couples filing jointly.
Itemizing may make sense if you have significant medical expenses, mortgage interest, charitable contributions, or state and local taxes (SALT).
New legislation temporarily raises the SALT deduction cap to $40,000, which may benefit households with higher property or income taxes.
Individuals age 65+ may also be eligible for an additional deduction.
 
3. Use Tax-Loss Harvesting to Offset Gains
If you hold investments in taxable accounts that have declined in value, tax-loss harvesting may help reduce your taxable income.
Selling investments at a loss can offset realized gains and reduce ordinary income by up to $3,000 per year, with unused losses eligible for indefinite carryforward.
Be mindful of the wash‑sale rule, which prohibits buying back a substantially identical investment within 30 days.
 
4. Evaluate a Roth Conversion
A Roth conversion involves moving money from a Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA and paying taxes on the converted amount today. This strategy may be advantageous if you expect higher income or higher tax rates in the future, or if you want to reduce future RMDs.
Market downturns can create ideal timing for conversions since lower account values may reduce the associated tax bill.
High earners may also consider backdoor or mega-backdoor Roth strategies if eligible.
 
5. Plan for Gifting and Charitable Contributions
For 2025, the annual gift-tax exclusion allows individuals to give up to $19,000 per person, or $38,000 per person for married couples who elect gift‑splitting.
Charitable giving can also provide meaningful tax benefits. Donating highly appreciated securities may allow you to avoid capital gains taxes while deducting the full fair market value if you itemize.
Starting in 2026, even non-itemizers will be able to deduct a limited amount of cash charitable contributions, making early planning important.
 
Final Thoughts
Thoughtful year-end planning is an opportunity to align your tax strategy with your broader financial and personal goals. As always, Traditions Wealth Advisors is here to help you evaluate your options and determine which strategies best fit your situation.
If you’d like to review your year‑end plan or discuss these strategies in more detail, please contact our team to schedule a conversation at 979-694-9100 or [email protected]
 
Source:
Fidelity Viewpoints: 5 year-end tax-saving moves. Oct 2025.
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/yearend-tax-planning

Traditions Wealth Advisors
Jade Chapman/Brien L. Smith CFP®
Economic Analyst Intern/Chief Investment Officer
October 27, 2025

Economic costs of shutdowns
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, government shutdowns typically cost more money than they save, contrary to some public perceptions.[9] Evidence shows that implementing contingency plans, lost user fees, contractor premiums for uncertainty, and guaranteed back pay to furloughed employees negate potential savings. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the 2018-2019 shutdown reduced GDP by $11 billion total, including $3 billion that would never be recovered.[42]

The Office of Management and Budget estimated that the 2013 shutdown resulted in $2.5 billion in pay and benefits paid to furloughed employees for hours not worked, as well as roughly $10 million in penalty interest payments and lost fee collections.[9] A 2019 Senate report found that the three government shutdowns in 2013, 2018, and 2019 wasted nearly $4 billion of taxpayer dollars.[8]

During shutdowns, the government incurs costs for:
          ·        Putting contingency plans in place
          ·        Lost user fees and other charges that are not collected
          ·        Contractor premiums included in bids to account for payment uncertainty
          ·        Back pay to furloughed employees who were forced to remain idle
          ·        Reduced private-sector investment and hiring due to inability to obtain federal                       permits, certifications, and loans

Overview of shutdowns involving furloughs:

Investing is not about “getting rich” or “playing the market.” It’s an essential part of achieving financial wellness. That means being able to meet your needs and the needs of those who depend on you as well as being able to set and achieve goals that go beyond merely being able to pay your bills and manage debts like mortgages, credit cards, and student loans. These 6 steps can help you increase your investing success and achieve financial wellness, even when financial markets seem unfriendly.

1. Start with a plan
At Fidelity, we believe creating a financial plan can provide the foundation for investment success. The financial planning process can help you take stock of your situation, define your goals and figure out practical steps to get there. Financial planning doesn't have to be fancy or expensive. You can do it with the help of a financial professional or consider using Fidelity’s digital planning tools. Either way, making a plan based on sound financial planning principles is an important step. A plan is one service that financial professionals frequently offer their clients.

2. Stick with your plan, even when markets look unfriendly
When the value of your portfolio falls, it's only human to want to run for shelter. But the best investors don’t. Instead, they maintain an allocation to stocks they can live with in good markets and bad. The financial crisis of late 2008 and early 2009 might have seemed a good time to run for safety in cash. But a Fidelity study of 1.5 million workplace savers found that those who stayed invested in the stock market during that time were far better off than those who headed for the sidelines.

In the decade following the crisis, those who stayed invested saw their account balances—which reflected the impact of their investment choices and contributions—grow 147%. That's twice the average 74% return for those who fled stocks during the fourth quarter of 2008 or first quarter of 2009. While most investors did not make any changes during the market downturn, those who did made a fateful decision with a lasting impact. More than 25% of those who sold out of stocks never got back into the market and missed the gains that followed.

If you get anxious when the stock market drops, remember that’s a normal response to volatility. It’s important to stick with your long-term investment mix and to have enough growth potential to achieve your goals. If you can’t tolerate the ups and downs of your portfolio, consider a less volatile mix of investments that you can stick with.

3. Be a saver, not a spender
While it’s easy to get caught up in the ups and downs of the market, it’s also important to think about how much of your income you are putting away for the future. Saving early and often can be a powerful force when it comes to making progress toward long-term financial goals.

As a general rule, Fidelity suggests putting away at least 15% of your income for retirement, including any employer match. Of course, that number is just a starting point—for some people it will be lower and for some people it will be higher. But one thing is clear: Starting early and saving consistently can make a big difference over time.

And the effort may be paying off. Fidelity’s latest quarterly report, Building Financial Futures, shows that workers across generations have boosted their savings rates, averaging 9.5% in Q2 2025. Add in an average employer contribution of 5.1%, and many savers are already hitting that 15% target. The result? After 15 years of steady saving, the average Gen X workplace retirement balance has grown to about $624,300. That’s the power of persistence.

4. Diversify
Fidelity believes one key foundation of successful investing is diversification (owning a variety of stocks, bonds, and other assets), which can help control risk.

Having an appropriate investment mix, giving you a portfolio that delivers growth potential with a level of risk that makes sense for your situation, may make it easier to stick with your plan through the ups and downs of the market.

Diversification cannot guarantee gains, or that you won’t experience a loss, but it does aim to provide a reasonable trade-off between risk and reward. You can not only diversify among stocks, bonds, and cash, but also within those categories. Consider diversifying your stock exposure across regions, sectors, investment styles (value, blend, and growth), and size (small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks). For bonds, consider diversifying across different credit qualities, maturities, and issuers.

5. Consider low-fee investment products that offer good value
Savvy investors know they can't control the market, but they can control costs. A study by independent research company Morningstar® found that, while by no means guaranteed, funds with lower expense ratios have historically had a higher probability of outperforming other funds in their category—in terms of relative total return, and future risk-adjusted return ratings.

Fidelity has also found that trading commissions and execution vary greatly among brokers, and the cost of trading affects your returns. Learn more about using price improvement for trading savings.

6. Don't forget about taxes
Another habit that may help investors succeed is keeping an eye on taxes and account types.

Accounts that offer tax benefits, like 401(k)s, IRAs, and certain annuities have the potential to help generate higher after-tax returns. This is what investors call "account location"—the amount of money you put into different types of accounts should be based on each account’s respective details of the study tax treatment. A related concept is called "asset location"—the practice of putting different types of investments in various types of accounts, based on the tax efficiency of the investment and the tax treatment of the type of account.

While taxes alone should never drive your investment decisions, you may want to consider putting your least tax-efficient investments (for example, taxable bonds whose interest payments are taxed at relatively high ordinary income tax rates) in tax-deferred accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. Meanwhile, more tax-efficient investments (for example, low-turnover funds, like index funds or many ETFs, and municipal bonds, where interest is typically free from federal income tax) are usually more suitable for taxable accounts.

The bottom line
Investing can be complex, but some of the most important habits of successful investors are pretty simple. If you build a smart plan and stick with it, save enough, make reasonable investment choices, and be aware of taxes, you will have adopted some of the key traits that may lead to success.

​Over the past several months, economic headlines have begun to raise the possibility of stagflation in the U.S. economy. This term describes the rare and troubling combination of sluggish economic growth, persistent inflation, and elevated unemployment. Each condition alone can be challenging, but when they occur together, the policy tools normally used to fix one problem can worsen the others.

What Is Stagflation?
Stagflation is an unusual economic environment where the economy stalls while prices keep rising. Normally, inflation occurs during periods of strong growth, when demand is robust. Conversely, weak growth and rising unemployment usually put downward pressure on prices. Stagflation breaks this pattern: it means families face higher costs of living while job opportunities shrink, creating stress for both households and businesses.

Why It Matters
Stagflation is considered one of the most damaging economic scenarios because it erodes purchasing power and investor confidence simultaneously. Inflation alone can often be managed with higher interest rates, but those same rate hikes can deepen slowdowns in growth and employment. Conversely, stimulating growth through looser monetary or fiscal policy risks fueling more inflation. This “policy trap” makes stagflation extremely difficult to address, as policymakers face conflicting choices with no easy solution.

Contributing Factors Today
Several dynamics are feeding concern about stagflation in the current environment:

• Sticky Inflation: While inflation has cooled from its 2022 peaks, certain categories such as housing, healthcare, and services remain elevated, keeping price growth above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
• Slowing Growth: GDP growth is moderating as higher interest rates weigh on housing, business investment, and consumer spending. Recent manufacturing and services data point to softer demand ahead.
• Labor Market Shifts: Though unemployment remains relatively low, hiring has slowed, wage growth is uneven across sectors, and more firms are signaling caution about future staffing needs.
• Global Headwinds: Geopolitical tensions, supply chain adjustments, and energy market volatility are adding external pressures that could push costs higher even as domestic growth softens.

What This Means for Investors
While stagflation is not yet a certainty, the risk underscores the importance of diversification and disciplined investment strategy. Assets that tend to hold value in inflationary environments, such as commodities, real assets, and inflation-protected securities, may provide ballast. At the same time, maintaining exposure to high-quality equities and fixed income helps balance against potential growth weakness.

Potentially Resilient Investments in Stagflation:

• Commodities and Precious Metals: Energy (oil, natural gas) and gold have historically been strong hedges when inflation rises but growth stalls, as they retain intrinsic value and can benefit from supply shocks.
• Inflation-Protected Bonds (TIPS): Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities adjust their principal with inflation, helping preserve purchasing power even if interest rates remain elevated.
• Real Assets: Real estate and infrastructure can offer protection because rental income and usage fees often adjust upward with inflation.
• Defensive Equity Sectors: Consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare tend to outperform in low-growth environments since demand for essentials remains steady regardless of the broader economy.

Potentially Challenged Investments in Stagflation:

• Long-Duration Bonds: Rising inflation erodes the real value of fixed coupon payments, while sluggish growth limits prospects for falling yields.
• Growth and Technology Stocks: Companies reliant on cheap capital and future earnings streams may struggle under higher interest rates and weaker demand.
• Cyclical Sectors: Industries tied closely to economic expansion, such as consumer discretionary, autos, and industrials, often underperform as household spending and business investment contract.
• Cash Holdings: While cash avoids market volatility, it steadily loses purchasing power during persistent inflation, making it an unattractive long-term option.

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Ultimately, positioning for stagflation requires balancing inflation hedges with defensive income-producing assets, while avoiding overexposure to areas that rely heavily on robust growth or stable price levels.

Traditions Wealth Advisors is pleased to introduce Nichole Hejl as our new Director of Client Relations and Marketing. Nichole brings over 20 years of experience in business management, consulting, customer service and marketing. She joins us from an agricultural consulting firm, where she specialized in commodity risk management and oversaw futures and options hedge accounts for over thirteen years.

A proud Texas native, Nichole grew up in Santa Fe (Galveston County) and has called the College Station area home since 2005. She graduated from Texas A&M University - College of Agriculture and Life Sciences in 2010 with a double major in Horticulture and Entomology. During that time, she also completed an internship with the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service and worked part-time as a dental assistant.
Nichole’s husband, BJ, is a fourth-generation rancher, and together they live in Snook, TX on the Hejl family’s H&H Ranch. They raise Brangus cattle and were recently honored by the Texas Department of Agriculture’s Land Heritage Program, recognizing over 100 years of continuous agricultural operation.
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In her free time, Nichole enjoys hunting, fishing, gardening, canning, baking, and long-distance running. She is currently training for her eighth marathon, set to take place in New York City this November, and has set sights on completing all seven World Marathon Majors. Together with her husband, she is actively involved in the Burleson County Farmers’ Market and supports several organizations focused on benefiting youth across Burleson, Brazos, and Washington Counties, including Go Texan, SPJST, Snook EEA and Chilifest. Nichole’s passion for serving others drives her commitment to making a positive impact, and she is eager to bring her skills and dedication to the clients of Traditions Wealth Advisors.

This week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, offering an updated snapshot of inflation across the country. The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a set basket of goods and services—everything from groceries and gas to rent and healthcare. It’s the most widely watched measure of inflation and a key factor in shaping interest rate policy, consumer sentiment, and investment strategy.

The CPI is compiled monthly by the BLS, which collects tens of thousands of prices from retailers, service providers, and landlords. The data is grouped into eight major spending categories: food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services. Some CPI versions also strip out volatile food and energy prices to track “core inflation,” which gives a clearer view of longer-term price trends.

In July, headline CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, holding steady from June. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.2%. However, the core CPI (which excludes food and energy) rose 0.3% for the month—the largest monthly gain since January—and 3.1% over the past 12 months. This indicates that while energy prices have eased, underlying price pressures in the economy remain somewhat sticky.

Breaking down the numbers, prices continued to rise in service categories such as housing, airfare, and healthcare—particularly dental care. On the flip side, we saw relief in areas like gasoline (down nearly 10%) and groceries, where several staples including eggs and produce saw modest price drops. These shifts reflect a broader pattern: goods inflation has stabilized, while services inflation continues to drive overall price growth.

​Looking ahead, these inflation dynamics are central to how the Federal Reserve will approach interest rate policy. While the cooling in headline inflation supports the case for a rate cut later this year, rising core inflation could give the Fed pause. As always, we are closely monitoring these developments and adjusting our investment outlook accordingly.