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The headline inflation rate came in at 3.8% for April, the highest reading in nearly three years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That number is being driven largely by energy costs tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with gasoline up over 28% from a year ago and fuel oil up more than 54%. Producer Price Index, meaning what businesses pay before they pass costs on to you at the register, jumped 6.0% annually, the largest surge since December 2022. Th

Why the Power Vacuum Hasn't Hit Home There’s an unusual situation unfolding in the Middle East right now. Even if the United States gains the upper hand, there may not be a clear path to resolution because there isn’t a stable counterpart to negotiate with. President Donald Trump had reportedly hoped to hold talks this week, but those plans fell through as Iran remains internally divided. That fragmentation, worsened by recent leadership disruptions, helps explain why the cur

Despite the onset of war earlier this year, U.S. equity markets have shown remarkable resilience. The S&P 500 is down roughly five percent from its record high on January 27 and has held the 200-day moving average. Analysts are increasingly debating whether the market is discounting a short conflict or a longer drawn-out scenario. Early projections suggested a possible ten to fifteen percent correction, but recent market behavior indicates a more measured response from invest

Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional The Supreme Court (6–3) struck down broad tariffs enacted under IEEPA. This eliminates many of the sweeping tariffs tied to trade deficits and fentanyl concerns. Hundreds of billions in collected tariffs may need refunds. The White House could try alternative legal pathways, but likely with more limits. GDP Slowed in Q4 2025 GDP grew at 1.4%, below expectations (2.8%) and down from 4.4% in Q3. The slowdown was largely due to: Government spending

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that tracks changes in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which focuses on prices consumers pay, the PPI measures inflation earlier in the production process, providing insight into cost pressures facing businesses. The PPI data are widely used by analysts and policymakers as part of broader inf

This afternoon, the Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the federal-funds target range down to 3.50%–3.75%. While markets widely anticipated the move, the tone of today’s announcement was anything but routine. For only the second time in more than a decade, the decision came with a rare three-member dissent. This unusually large split inside the central bank is a clear sign of how complex the economic landscape has become. Accordi

As we move into November, the economic backdrop in the U.S. is showing resilience, but with clear headwinds. Inflation appears to have stabilized and growth remains positive, though decelerating. At the same time, consumer sentiment has dropped significantly, and business-survey data suggest caution. The prolonged federal government shutdown has added a layer of uncertainty: key data collections at agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Econom

Economic costs of shutdowns According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, government shutdowns typically cost more money than they save, contrary to some public perceptions.[9] Evidence shows that implementing contingency plans, lost user fees, contractor premiums for uncertainty, and guaranteed back pay to furloughed employees negate potential savings. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the 2018-2019 shutdown reduced GDP by $11 billion total, inclu

This week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, offering an updated snapshot of inflation across the country. The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a set basket of goods and services—everything from groceries and gas to rent and healthcare. It’s the most widely watched measure of inflation and a key factor in shaping interest rate policy, consumer sentiment, and investmen

My wife, Kathy, and I recently returned from a 46th wedding anniversary trip to Europe. We went with three of Kathy’s siblings and their spouses. While we all had a lot of fun, I also asked many questions about the economy of each country we visited. We flew into the airport in Frankfurt, Germany on our way to Prague, the Czech Republic. The Frankfurt airport was busy but also old and in need of updating and remodeling. The Airbus 300 jet we boarded for a hop over to Prague w

A sharp escalation in military activity between Iran, Israel, and now the United States has intensified tensions across the Middle East. Over the past 24 hours, Iran launched missile attacks toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq, prompting several Gulf states to close their airspace. While the full scope of damage remains unclear and broader conflict is still not inevitable, the situation has clearly entered a more volatile and unpredictable phase. As always, our role is not to

Howdy! My name is Jade Chapman, and I’m honored to serve as the Economic Analyst Intern at TWA for the 2025–2026 academic year, continuing the great work of Greysen Golgert. I’m a senior at Texas A&M, beginning an accelerated master’s program this fall. I join TWA at a dynamic time for the U.S. economy, and over the next year, I’ll provide analysis and commentary on key macroeconomic trends. As I begin this exciting chapter, I find myself analyzing a particularly consequentia

U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade Marks a Historic Shift 3 major credit agencies: S&P, Fitch, Moody’s Credit rating scale: AAA (highest) to D (default) AAA rating benefits Low borrowing costs Investor confidence Indicator of economic stability Recent history S&P downgrade: 2011 (AAA to AA+) Fitch downgrade: 2023 (AAA to AA+) Moody’s downgrade: May 2025 (AAA to Aa1) Significance: First time U.S. has no AAA rating from any agency Reasons for the Moody’s downgrade: Debt levels: $36 t

It’s no secret that economic outlooks have shifted in the previous month as policy change generates extreme uncertainty in the United States and abroad. Optimism and all-time stock market highs in February have now finally shifted to bearish sentiment and more reasonably-priced equities. Uncertainty has more to do with this rapid change than any sign of fundamental weakness in the economy. American exceptionalism may have taken a hit over the last month in financial markets,

President Trump has been insistent that reciprocal tariffs are on the way, but their reported scope and scale changes every week. Dramatic rhetoric and calls for extreme taxes on various imports have been swallowed hook, line, and sinker by investors. When the implications of a potential trade war with the EU became clear in early March, stock markets entered what Wall Street calls a “correction” (the S&P 500 had fallen over 10% by that point) by March 13th . That knee-jerk r

It has been a back-and-forth February for financial markets. First, it is important to note that equities volatility has historically been higher in the year following an election in which the incumbent party loses. A change in administration naturally creates uncertainty for investors and can muddy up the macroeconomic models that economists use to anticipate growth or inflation metrics. That said, the headwinds financial markets have faced this month are not solely related

As each new January arrives, there is always a level of uncertainty that comes with it as we consider the passing of another year. At Traditions Wealth Advisors, we alleviate that uncertainty as best we can by keeping you informed and up-to-date on the macroeconomic forces at work in this world and the effect they may have on your investments. With a little bit of assistance from 2024, 2025 started off on a relatively good note for the United States economy. The inflation and